DIWAN

Studies & Intelligence

Intelligence with context. Foresight that shapes decisions. The DIWAN register publishes commissioned studies, briefings, and market intelligence across sectors and jurisdictions.

Briefings room Membership

StreamsAll Trade & Capital 79 Law & Regulation 46 Country Files 196 Demand & Buyers 45 Platforms & Growth 180 Brand & Positioning 4 Commodities 23 Business 69 Technology 188 Cyber Security 4

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United Arab Emirates 49

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Trade & Capital

5 of 223 items

Photo · Ondrej Bocek / Unsplash

RNK-DIWAN-070Feasibility

DIWAN · 24 SEPT 2026

GCC Platform Signals: The Delivery War Goes to Margin

Two market signals to 24 September 2026 — the incumbent raises guidance while profit falls, and the challenger's China playbook turns profitable in Saudi Arabia. What is moving, and who should act.

In the weeks to 24 September 2026, the GCC platform economy produced two signals that read as one story. On 13 August, talabat — the region's largest consumer internet company — raised its full-year 2026 guidance across every key metric after Q2 revenue climbed 16% to US$1.1 billion, yet the same release showed adjusted EBITDA down 13% and net income down 18%. Growth is being bought with margin. Then, on 9 September, Caixin reported that Keeta, Meituan's international delivery brand, had turned profitable in Saudi Arabia in July 2026 — barely two years after entering with US$266 million of committed spend and sign-up vouchers worth 100 riyals. A subsidy blitz that incumbents hoped was temporary has instead converted into sustainable economics, with roughly a third of the Saudi market and around 700,000 daily orders across the region. The Gulf's platform contest has moved from customer acquisition to a war of operating margin, rider fleets, and supply infrastructure. This study sets out both signals, the numbers beneath them, and the concrete moves open to merchants, platforms, investors, and service providers in the window before Keeta closes the map at Bahrain and Oman.

US$1.1bnTALABAT Q2 2026 REVENUE (UP 16% Y/Y)

US$100mTALABAT Q2 2026 NET INCOME (DOWN 18% Y/Y)

~33%KEETA SHARE OF SAUDI FOOD DELIVERY, LATE 2025

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Photo · Unsplash

RNK-DIWAN-058Feasibility

DIWAN · 10 SEPT 2026

GCC Platform Signal: The Single Rail Edition

Two signals in thirty days — a GCC-wide single-integration payments rail and a $375M capital barbell — just repriced regional expansion for every Gulf platform

Two market signals crossed in the thirty days to 10 September 2026. Network International switched on GCC-wide acquiring through a single integration (4 Sep), collapsing the payments fragmentation that taxed every regional expansion. Three days later, Wamda's August data confirmed a barbelled capital market: $375M across just 27 deals, 97% into the UAE, ~85% into Series C — while sovereign-adjacent funds batch-seeded platforms in Oman and a new Saudi growth fund launched. Read together: the cost of going regional just fell as the reward for being regional rose. This feasibility study quantifies both signals and answers who should act, and how, in the next ninety days.

$375M / 27 dealsMENA STARTUP FUNDING, AUGUST 2026 (WAMDA)

97%SHARE OF AUGUST CAPITAL CAPTURED BY THE UAE

~85%AUGUST CAPITAL DEPLOYED IN SERIES C ROUNDS

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Photo · Unsplash

RNK-DIWAN-144Feasibility

FORFAIT · 04 SEPT 2026

GCC Energy Commodities: The Bunker Line

Where ships refuel when the Gulf is a war zone — Fujairah's inversion, Oman's outside-the-strait option, and the clean-fuel race that did not pause

The Bunkering Edition of the GCC energy-commodities series. The Rerouted Barrel mapped where the oil went; this study maps where the ships now refuel. In the 30-day window Fujairah — the world's third bunkering hub before the war — completed a structural inversion: bunker sales at roughly a third of pre-war levels even after July's rebound, while fuel-oil inventories drew down 29% and the port flipped to a net fuel-oil EXPORTER at 306,000 b/d. Premium structure is the new geography: Fujairah VLSFO carried a $302/mt premium over Rotterdam in June and still holds a $28/mt premium over Singapore in September. Oman's outside-the-strait ports hold the locational option — but Sohar, Duqm and Salalah have all taken Iranian strikes, and the clean-bunkering land-grab (SalalaH2, HIF-Acciona e-methanol) kept moving through the war. Evidence-based, fully cited; not investment, legal or chartering advice.

−63.8%FUJAIRAH BUNKER SALES, JULY 2026 VS JULY 2025 (AFTER A +167% JULY REBOUND)

306,000 b/dFUJAIRAH FUEL-OIL EXPORTS, AUGUST 2026 — THE NET-EXPORTER FLIP

$302/mtFUJAIRAH VLSFO PREMIUM OVER ROTTERDAM, 30 JUNE 2026

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Photo · Hush Naidoo Jade Photography / Unsplash

CMD-DIWAN-009Feasibility

FORFAIT · 30 JUL 2026

The GCC Healthcare Gold Rush: Private Capital, Mandatory Insurance and the Provider Gap

Six-system benchmark, four mandate engines, a 2030 bed-gap model and a capital playbook for the most oversubscribed sector in the Gulf

Every GCC state has now switched on, or is arming, a mandatory health-insurance engine — Abu Dhabi (2006), Dubai (2014), the Northern Emirates (2025), Kuwait (2025), Oman (phasing), Saudi Arabia (13.2m private lives and doubling premiums to 2030) — while the region operates 1.3–2.3 hospital beds per 1,000 people against Germany's 7.8 and the OECD's 4.3. This study benchmarks the four buyer markets against Germany and Singapore, sizes the provider gap to 2030 (Saudi estimates alone range 8,500–27,000 beds), maps the private-capital wave (PureHealth's $3.5bn of European acquisitions, the $1bn Aster GCC buyout, three Saudi IPOs 64–119× oversubscribed), prices greenfield-versus-acquisition entry, and stress-tests the one risk the gold-rush narrative underweights: reimbursement.

US$159bnGCC HEALTH SPEND BY 2029 (ALPEN CAPITAL, 7.8% CAGR)

8,500–27,000RANGE OF ESTIMATES FOR EXTRA SAUDI BEDS NEEDED BY ~2030

119×INSTITUTIONAL OVERSUBSCRIPTION, FAKEEH CARE IPO (2024)

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Photo · Veli Yunus Ünal / Unsplash

CMD-DIWAN-005Feasibility

FORFAIT · 24 JUL 2026

The Quiet Diversification Scorecard: Gulf Non-Oil Exports 2026

UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain and Qatar measured against the Malaysia standard — what is genuinely scaling, what is statistical noise, and where the investable core sits

2025 delivered record non-oil export headlines across the Gulf — but decomposition shows the UAE's +45.5% is gold-inflated and Saudi Arabia's +18.9% masks a −0.1% fall in domestic-origin shipments. Benchmarked against Malaysia (86.4% manufactured exports; ECI #27 vs UAE #35, Saudi #60, Qatar #83), the genuine convergence is concentrated in petrochemical derivatives and aluminium, both stress-tested by the 2026 Hormuz closure. The study ranks the four scaling sectors and closes with a ranked investable shortlist: downstream polymer conversion, aluminium recycling/rolled products, outside-strait logistics, and selective agri-food platforms.

AED 813.8bnUAE NATIONAL NON-OIL EXPORTS, 2025 — RECORD, +45.5% YOY (GOLD-INFLATED); THE 2031 TARGET HIT FIVE YEARS EARLY

−0.1%SAUDI DOMESTIC-ORIGIN NON-OIL EXPORT GROWTH, 2025 — THE HEADLINE +18.9% WAS RE-EXPORT-DRIVEN

86.4%MALAYSIA'S MANUFACTURED SHARE OF EXPORTS, 2025 — THE BENCHMARK NO GULF STATE APPROACHES

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Studies & Intelligence

Trade & Capital

GCC Platform Signals: The Delivery War Goes to Margin

GCC Platform Signal: The Single Rail Edition

GCC Energy Commodities: The Bunker Line

The GCC Healthcare Gold Rush: Private Capital, Mandatory Insurance and the Provider Gap

The Quiet Diversification Scorecard: Gulf Non-Oil Exports 2026

Highlights

The Bahamas: Economic Outlook 2026

Estonia: Economic and Social Projections for 2026

Bulgaria: Economic and Social Projections for 2026

Monthly dossiers