Studies & Intelligence

Nigeria Food Security, Market Resilience and Agricultural Development Programme

Public dossier — an independent feasibility read on a balanced, local-first, import-triggered food-security programme for Nigeria

Nigeria enters the 2026 lean season with 34.7 million people projected in crisis-level food insecurity while headline inflation falls and reserves sit at a 17-year high — a paradox of macro recovery above and household food stress below. This dossier sets out the independent feasibility architecture for a proposed Food Security, Market Resilience and Agricultural Development Programme: commodity-by-commodity gap analysis instead of blanket imports, a local-first procurement doctrine with published import triggers, a redesigned strategic-reserve layer, a self-liquidating revolving trade-finance structure, and a gated pilot-first path. Every originating figure is treated as a hypothesis under test, not a fact.