DIWAN

Studies & Intelligence

Intelligence with context. Foresight that shapes decisions. The DIWAN register publishes commissioned studies, briefings, and market intelligence across sectors and jurisdictions.

Briefings room Membership

StreamsAll Trade & Capital 79 Law & Regulation 46 Country Files 196 Demand & Buyers 45 Platforms & Growth 180 Brand & Positioning 4 Commodities 23 Business 69 Technology 188 Cyber Security 4

GeographyAll

United Arab Emirates 49

Antigua and Barbuda 1

Bosnia and Herzegovina 1

Brazil 1

British Virgin Islands 1

Central African Republic 1

Northern Mariana Islands 1

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Platforms & Growth

4 of 223 items

Photo · Loeng Lig / Unsplash

CTY-CN-2026Country intelligence

FORFAIT · 28 SEPT 2026

China: Prospects for Economic Growth and Demographic Change in 2026

An Analytical Overview

China's economic landscape is projected to maintain a GDP of USD 19.50 trillion by 2025, with real GDP growth stabilising at 5%. The population is anticipated to decline slightly, impacting market dynamics. Urbanisation will continue, with an urban population share of 66.3%. These factors will shape investment opportunities and economic strategies in the coming years.

USD 19.50 trillionGDP, CURRENT USD (2025)

5REAL GDP GROWTH (2025)

USD 13,862GDP PER CAPITA, CURRENT USD (2025)

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Photo · Hanny Naibaho / Unsplash

RNK-DIWAN-073Feasibility

DIWAN · 28 SEPT 2026

GCC Platform Signals: The Playbook Turns Profitable

Two signals from the last 30 days — Keeta's Gulf machine crosses into profit, and Saudi mints a wallet unicorn

Two market signals on platforms in the GCC over the past 30 days. Signal one: Keeta, Meituan's international arm, confirmed its Saudi operation turned profitable in July 2026 — the Chinese platform playbook has now proven it can make money in the Gulf, not just buy share. Signal two: Saudi wallet barq closed a $329.5M Series A at a $1.85B valuation days after regulators used Money20/20 Middle East to wire the Kingdom's rails to Qatar's. What is moving: platform economics in the Gulf just passed from the subsidy phase to the proof phase, in both delivery and money. Who should act: incumbent platforms, merchants, wallet builders, and investors positioning ahead of the region's first credible platform listings.

Jul 2026KEETA SAUDI OPERATION REACHED PROFITABILITY

+15.2%UAE FOOD-DELIVERY ORDER GROWTH, H1 2026

$329.5MBARQ SERIES A AT A $1.85B VALUATION

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Photo · Ondrej Bocek / Unsplash

RNK-DIWAN-070Feasibility

DIWAN · 24 SEPT 2026

GCC Platform Signals: The Delivery War Goes to Margin

Two market signals to 24 September 2026 — the incumbent raises guidance while profit falls, and the challenger's China playbook turns profitable in Saudi Arabia. What is moving, and who should act.

In the weeks to 24 September 2026, the GCC platform economy produced two signals that read as one story. On 13 August, talabat — the region's largest consumer internet company — raised its full-year 2026 guidance across every key metric after Q2 revenue climbed 16% to US$1.1 billion, yet the same release showed adjusted EBITDA down 13% and net income down 18%. Growth is being bought with margin. Then, on 9 September, Caixin reported that Keeta, Meituan's international delivery brand, had turned profitable in Saudi Arabia in July 2026 — barely two years after entering with US$266 million of committed spend and sign-up vouchers worth 100 riyals. A subsidy blitz that incumbents hoped was temporary has instead converted into sustainable economics, with roughly a third of the Saudi market and around 700,000 daily orders across the region. The Gulf's platform contest has moved from customer acquisition to a war of operating margin, rider fleets, and supply infrastructure. This study sets out both signals, the numbers beneath them, and the concrete moves open to merchants, platforms, investors, and service providers in the window before Keeta closes the map at Bahrain and Oman.

US$1.1bnTALABAT Q2 2026 REVENUE (UP 16% Y/Y)

US$100mTALABAT Q2 2026 NET INCOME (DOWN 18% Y/Y)

~33%KEETA SHARE OF SAUDI FOOD DELIVERY, LATE 2025

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Photo · Shibin Joseph / Unsplash

RNK-DIWAN-066Feasibility

DIWAN · 21 SEPT 2026

GCC Platform Watch: The Profit Turn

Two signals from the last 30 days — Keeta's Gulf operation turns profitable and Tabby prices at $6.5 billion — mark the end of growth-at-any-cost in the Gulf platform economy, and the playbook for who should act

In the 30 days to 21 September 2026, the GCC platform economy crossed a line it has been approaching for two years: platforms stopped being priced and judged on growth alone, and started being priced and judged on profit. Two signals carry the shift. First, reporting on 9 September confirmed that Keeta — Meituan's international arm — reached profitability in Saudi Arabia in July 2026, roughly 22 months after entering, while building the UAE into its second-largest market across all seven emirates. The subsidy-led Chinese entry playbook is now a self-funding beachhead, and the cost is visible in incumbent accounts: Talabat grew Q2 GMV 11% yet surrendered 18% of net income defending wallet share. Second, on 14 September Tabby closed a $233 million round at a $6.5 billion valuation led by Blue Pool Capital — pricing a Riyadh-headquartered platform above Klarna, its global archetype, on the strength of licences, profitability since 2023 and $18 billion in annualized volume. This study reads the two signals together, quantifies what is moving, and sets out who should act: merchants with a rare negotiating window, incumbents forced into subscription and multi-vertical defence, investors ahead of a Tadawul pipeline, and founders for whom profitability is now the ticket to capital.

$6.5bnTABBY POST-MONEY VALUATION ON 14 SEP 2026 — ABOVE KLARNA'S ~$5.2BN MARKET CAPITALISATION

−18%TALABAT Q2 2026 NET INCOME CHANGE WHILE GMV GREW 11% — THE PRICE OF DEFENDING WALLET SHARE

~22 monthsTIME FROM KEETA'S RIYADH ENTRY (SEP 2024) TO A PROFITABLE SAUDI OPERATION (JUL 2026)

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Studies & Intelligence

Platforms & Growth

China: Prospects for Economic Growth and Demographic Change in 2026

GCC Platform Signals: The Playbook Turns Profitable

GCC Platform Signals: The Delivery War Goes to Margin

GCC Platform Watch: The Profit Turn

Highlights

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Monthly dossiers